The Royals finished at 82-80, a winning season, but not good enough to make the postseason. After the last home game was played, Royals photographer Jason Hanna posted this photo to signify the end of the season at Kauffman Stadium.
Hopes of Royals fans were high for this season after the Royals surprised all the pundits by going 86-76 last year. That earned them a Wild Card slot, and they played in their first postseason since winning the World Series in 2015. The Royals swept the Orioles in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Yankees in the Division Series.
But major sports sites were not optimistic that the Royals could repeat that success in 2025. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus predicted 81 victories. BetMGM had the over/under at 82.5.
Before Opening Day this year, Hot Stove’s Nostradamus Panel of six participants predicted 80, 82, 84, 86, 89 and 90 wins. The correct 82 came from Steve Roling.
I’ll take the blame for that prediction of 90 wins, although I hedged by suggesting six “dream” scenarios that would be needed to get there. Those scenarios are in italics below, and the reality of what happened is shown within the [bold brackets].
1. Outfield: M. J. Melendez will get comfortable with his new batting stance and blossom. Hunter Renfro will have an injury-free season and hit at his salary level. Centerfielder Kyle Isbel will win a Gold Glove.
[M. J. played most of his season in Omaha. Renfro, under contract for $6.5 million, was released in May. Many, many corner outfielders (or infielders playing the outfield) were given opportunities, but the only one who might be considered a success was Mike Yastrzemski who came in a July trade (and Yaz is now a free agent). Isbel played fine, but the Gold Glove goes to Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox.]
2. Infield: The Royals will have a true leadoff hitter in Jonathon India, another MVP-worthy season from Bobby Witt Jr., an injury-free year from RBI machine Vinnie Pasquantino, and a solid season from base-stealing phenom Maikel Garcia. Strong defense would also be nice.
[India had the worst season of his 5-year career. Bobby led MLB in hits for the second straight year. He won’t be MVP, but still in the top five (Judge or Raleigh will be MVP). A breakout year for Garcia (6th in WAR in AL). Witt and Garcia should get Gold Gloves. Pasquantino second in the league in RBIs and improving his fielding.]
3. Utility: Michael Massey will be a super-sub in the infield and outfield. Darion Blanco will continue in the tradition of Jarrod Dyson (“That’s what speed do.”).
[Not a great season for Massey, even when not injured. Blanco headed back to Omaha, but Tyler Tolbert did fine (20 steals in 22 attempts). Adam Fraizer provided versatile help.]
4. Catchers: The Venezuelan dynamic duo of Silver Slugger Salvy Perez and Gold Glove finalist Freddy Fermin will repeat good seasons. And they won’t be accidentally deported as gang members (have you seen Salvy’s tattoos?).
[Salvy caught a lot of games (for age 35) and put together a good season at the plate (he and Vinnie were the first Royals duo with 30 homers and 100 RBIs in a season – photo below). Fermin was traded in July, but rookie Carter Jensen made a great first impression with an OPS of .941 and the longest home run (482’) by a Royal in Statcast history (2015); video here.]
5. Starting Rotation: One of the best in MLB last year and mostly injury-free. Repeat.
[Last year, Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans finished 2nd and 4th in the AL Cy Young vote. Lugo was strong at the beginning of this season and was a potential trade for a big bat at the mid-season deadline; instead, the team signed him to a $46 million contract for the next two years, which was followed by a series of bad starts and then to the IL. Ragans was also on the IL and was not a major factor. The injury bug hit almost every starting pitcher, but the team cobbled together a rotation of changing starters to still rank high in the league. Noah Cameron was one of the best rookie pitchers in the majors. ]
6. Bullpen: Remember “HDH” (Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland), the trio of relievers who helped the Royals win pennants in 2014 and 2015? Let’s do it again. Maybe “HEE” – Hunter Harvey, Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg.
[The highlight was Carlos Estevez leading the majors with 42 saves. Erceg was mostly good but finished the season on the IL. Harvey was good for the 10 innings he pitched before going back to the IL. And just like with the starters, the team kept finding middle-relievers to keep the games close.]
One scenario I failed to include was the timely hitting the Royals had in 2024. It would have been nice to repeat that. I have no stats at hand, but I’m pretty sure the team batting average with runners in scoring position was markedly down. I was especially frustrated with the repeated failure to score a man on third with less than two outs.
With so many things not going as planned/dreamed, I think squeezing out a winning season was a good result.
Another Perspective: My prediction of 90 wins in 2025 was a mix of optimism and hometown bias. But I’m not the only one with such traits.
At the beginning of this season, Joe Posnanski surveyed his subscribers, asking them to rate their optimism for their home team. The ratings were from 1 to 5, with 5 being “We might win the World Series” and 1 being “Can I just fast forward to 2028.”
Kansas City came in at #8 out of 30 teams. Per Joe:
“Yep, Kansas City Royals fans come into 2025 more optimistic than any fan base in either the American or National League divisions. You get it. Kansas City is in its City on the Hill period, you know, with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and Tayor Swift and Bobby Witt Jr. and Paul Rudd and Ted Lasso and the World Cup and everything else. Obviously, this makes my heart sing. I love Kansas City deeply.”
Joe of course has his own hometown bias. He covered the Royals for the Kansas City Star from 1996 to 2011, and as he says, many of those years were “terrible.” He wrote a column (“It wasn’t easy”) at the beginning of each season guaranteeing that the Royals would win the American League Central. With this perspective, Joe concluded…
“All of which is to say: I’ve found hope – or at least a semblance of hope – in MUCH worse Royals teams than this one. You can understand this hope. When you start with one of the best players in the game, as Bobby Witt Jr. obviously is, bring back two pitchers who finished top five in the Cy Young voting (Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans) and surround them with some interesting players like Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvy Perez and Johnathan India and Maikel Garcia and Michael Wacha and Lucas Erceg, why not hope? Sure, there are a lot of holes. But this is the holiest division. Why not Kansas City?”
Yes, why not Kansas City? Well, as detailed above: injuries, lack of corner-outfield production, etc. So, we fans lament, “Wait Till Next Year.”
Offseason Moves: The Royals have the framework to improve in 2026. The infield has three stars: Witt, Garcia and Pasquantino (2B is a work in progress). Catching looks solid with Carter Jensen splitting time with the aging, but still productive, Perez. Assuming injuries clear up over the offseason, pitching should again be strong. Bubic, Wacha, Lugo, Ragans and Cameron round out a good starting rotation, supplemented by two pitchers who performed well at the end of the season – Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert who came to the Royals in the Freddy Fermin trade. Don’t know if free agent Michael Lorenzen is returning. Relief pitching, Estevez and a cast of setup guys.
[Freddy Fermin was a good player and teammate. It was fun to see him deliver the walk-off hit that put San Diego in the postseason (click here).]
The top priority for the Royals will no doubt be finding some reliable bats for the outfield. One could be rookie Jac Caglianone who was called up after less than 100 games in the minors because the Royals were desperate for a hot bat. Jac exhibited some power, but his lack of experience showed in plate discipline and adapting to the outfield (he’s been a first baseman). I’m hopeful on Jac.
It’s difficult to acquire a hard-hitting outfielder in free agency. The price is just too high for a small market team. I see them doing what they did last year – modest free agency and trading a starting pitcher for a hitter. They traded Brady Singer for leadoff hitter Jonathan India. Singer had his best season ever and India his worst, but risks must be taken to fill holes in a lineup.
Go for it Royals!
2025 Postseason: Underway this week…
Where are the New York Mets? The team with the second highest payroll had the best record in baseball as of June 12 (45-24). They went 38-55 after that and lost out on the third Wild Card slot to Cincinnati on the last day of the season.
Payroll for the Mets: $428 million; the Reds: $141 million.
The Mets final record of 83-79 was one win better than the Royals (payroll of $177 million).
So, money is not the only factor in building a team. But it remains the most reliable factor.
The payroll number for the Mets includes the applicable luxury tax (for all thirty teams, click here and see the “TOTAL” payroll cost with luxury tax).
Lonnie’s Dream Matchup for the World Series: Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres.
Why? Seatle is the only MLB team to never appear in a World Series. San Diego is one of the five teams to have never won a World Series (the others are Milwaukee, Seattle, Colorado and Tampa Bay).
My backup in the NL is the Milwaukee Brewers because they have also not won a World Series. But the city of Milwaukee has celebrated a World Series victory. The Milwaukee Braves won in 1957 (but moved to Atlanta in 1966).
Lonnie’s Jukebox (1) – Roommates at 43rd and Main in Kansas City: In the late 1960s, singers Danny Cox, Mike Brewer and Tom Shipley lived in the “Good Karma House” at 4218 Main. In a poignant coincidence, all three have died in the last nine months. Brewer died last December at the age of 80. Danny died in March of this year at 81 (tribute in Hot Stove #277). And in August, Shipley died at 84. Below, Shipley, Brewer and Cox together in 2008 (from the Brewer and Shipley website).
In 1967 (the “Summer of Love”), Cox, Brewer and Shipley were part of the California music scene. They shared a Midwest background and had all toured the coffee house circuit around the country. They became friends, and Brewer and Shipley became a duo. They jointly decided to return to a more central location, Kansas City, where they had played at the Vanguard Coffee House owned by Stan Plesser.
In addition to providing a stage for the singers at the Vanguard, Stan and his partner Paul Peterson formed Good Karma Productions to manage artists, and two of their first acts were Danny and Brewer & Shipley. Good Karma’s office was in an old 3-story house at 4218 Main, just up the street from the Vanguard. It also became home to the singers. Brewer and the office were on the first floor, Shipley on the second and Danny on the third.
For more on the Good Karma story, see Hot Stove #160. From that post, here is an encore of their big hit:
“One Toke Over the Line” by Brewer & Shipley (1971). Paul Peterson tells me this song was created in the back room of the Vanguard. The record was on the charts for 14 weeks and peaked at #10. It likely got a boost in sales when the song was attacked by Vice President Spiro Agnew. The VP was unhappy with a song about toking marijuana. He labeled Brewer & Shipley as subversives and asked the FCC to pull the song from the airwaves. The duo reportedly made Nixon’s infamous “Enemies List.” It was terrific publicity.
The last time I saw Danny Cox perform was at the Lyric Opera, and the video of that performance is online:
“The Ballad of Buck O’Neil” by Danny Cox (Live, 2021).
At a personal level, I got to know Danny after I started representing Good Karma in 1975 (at the recommendation of their counsel Wayne Tenenbaum who was leaving his practice to become county assessor for County Executive Mike White). Which leads me to…
Lonnie’s Jukebox (2) – Danny Cox and Lonnie’s Restaurants: In the late 1970s and early 1980s, I invested with some clients in a pair of restaurants, the Brewery in Brookside and the Harris House in Westport. I was then single and thought it would be fun and offer me a lot of “free” meals. It turned out there were also downsides. It’s not always profitable, and there can be a lot of headaches. Hats off to those who succeed.
But there was fun, and the meals were important (I did not, and still do not, cook). For both restaurants, I turned to Stan Plesser to arrange some entertainment. At the Brewery, Danny Cox played at least two weekends, one at the end of 1978 as shown in this Brewery calendar.
At the Harris House, Stan helped me organize a “Vanguard Month.” Brewer & Shipley played two nights (the calendar says just Mike Brewer, but I think both came; my mind is fuzzy). The following weekend, Danny played three nights. That summer, we opened a deck above the restaurant, and Danny put together a house band that played several weeks to big crowds.
The bottom of that May calendar overlapped into June. Note the reference to “RITA AND LONNIE” on June 6.
That’s the day we were married. The reception was at the Harris House. I soon left the restaurant business. Rita’s a good cook.
Lonnie’s Jukebox (3) – Chuck Haddix Retirement (From Marr Sound Archives, not Fish Fry): The Marr Sound Archives was established at UMKC in 1986 with a foundational gift of 42,000 sound recordings from Gaylord Marr and his wife Olga. Over the last 39+ years, that collection has been expanded and curated by Chuck Haddix: “When I first came to the library there was a room with a desk and a chair. Now there are several rooms and a robot with over 450,000 sound recordings.” Below, Gaylord Marr and Chuck Haddix.
This past August, Chuck retired from Marr. “My work at the sound archives has provided me with the opportunity to do what I love – collect and share recordings, photos, manuscripts and other archival treasures with individuals from around the world.” It’s an understatement to say he will be missed. His institutional knowledge in his field is irreplaceable.
I can attest to Chuck’s work. Several years ago, I asked him if he had any recordings of Walt Lochman broadcasting Kansas City Blues baseball games in the late 1930s. My interest was on behalf of my friend Bill Lochman, one of Walt Lochman’s sons. Chuck found several recordings and invited Bill and me to come over and take a listen. The recordings are on 16-inch acetate discs originally cut in the KMBC radio studio during the programs (like the one held by Chuck in the photo below). We listened to the digitalized versions prepared by the archives staff, including coverage of Phil Rizzuto before he moved up to the Yankees. Bill and I were mesmerized hearing his dad’s broadcast from two years before we were born.
Chuck has another gig that has lasted for almost 40 years. Hosting, under the name Chuck Haddock (as in the fish), four hours each Friday and Saturday night on KCUR’s Fish Fry. His music selections: “I always say I feature the finest in blues, soul, rhythm ‘n’ blues, jumpin’ jive and zydeco. But it’s much broader than that. I’ll feature swing music and field hollers. The common denominator is American music. That’s what I’m about.”
The 40th anniversary celebration of his show will be held at Knuckleheads on November 8. Info and tickets here.
Chuck interviewed Danny Cox several times on Fish Fry, including when Danny turned 75 in 2018 (listen here; 5:42). They discussed Danny’s social justice, civil rights and anti-war activism and played clips of Danny’s songs. A good listen.
Now, to the jukebox, with selections drawn from last Saturday’s Fish Fry (the full list of 59 songs from the four hours is here).
“Saturday Night Fish Fry” by Louis Jordan. The theme song for Chuck’s show.
“Snatch and Grab It” by Julia Lee
“I Fall to Pieces” by Patsy Cline
“The Weight” by Aretha Franklin
“Brown Eyed Girl” by Van Morrison
“What You Want the Girl to Do” by Allen Toussaint
“Hootie Blues” by Jay McShann
“My Home Is in the Delta” by Muddy Waters
“In the Midnight Hour” by Wilson Pickett
Chuck, enjoy your partial retirement. And keep frying fish every Friday and Saturday night.
Walk-Off Photo: During the last Royals homestand, I attended an afternoon game at Kauffman Stadium with my friend Jay DeSimone. As told before in Hot Stove, Jay and I cut school in the 8th grade to attend the first A’s game in Kansas City on April 12, 1955. I changed high schools the next year and we lost track of each other for 50+ years. In 2010, we reconnected and went to a ball game and continue to do so annually.
This year’s game had a twist. We had a visitor for an inning. A man born on April 12, 1955, Royals owner John Sherman. This date coincidence had been noted before. See Hot Stove #106 – John Sherman – Born in the American League.
Go for it Royals!!