Tomorrow is Opening Day for the Royals. Some KC major league baseball history…
Opening Day 105 Years Ago (1920): First Kansas City Monarchs game in the newly formed Negro National League.
Opening Day 70 Years Ago (1955): First A’s game in KC after relocating from Philadelphia.
Opening Day 40 Years Ago (1985): The beginning of a season that ended with the Royals winning their first World Series (v. Cardinals, 4 games to 3).
Opening Day 10 Years Ago (2015): The beginning of a season that ended with the Royals winning their second World Series (v. Mets, 4 games to 1).
Opening Day 0 Years Ago (2025): Tomorrow at the K (v. Guardians). On the mound, Cole Ragans for KC and Tanner Bibee for Cleveland.
The Big Question: Can the Royals make the playoffs again? After winning only 56 games in 2023 (that means losing 106), the Royals roared back with an 86-76 record in 2024. The 86 victories led to the Royals second postseason appearance in the last 10 years (the other being the World Championship season of 2015).
Here are the AL Central Division win numbers for the last 10 years (playoff years shown in gray; 2020* was the Covid year). Thanks to Jeff Nelson for the chart.
The division looks to be very competitive this year (other than the White Sox), so getting back to the playoffs will be a challenge.
Hot Stove Nostradamus Panel: Last week, Hot Stove convened its Nostradamus Panel to predict the number of Royals wins for 2025. This is the fifth year for the panel, and we have been mostly wrong.
In 2021, our guesses ranged from 74 to 81. The Royals won 74. In 2022, the range was 74 to 81, compared to the actual 65. In 2023, we missed big, predicting from 66 to 78 wins, while the Royals won only 56. Other than Steve Roling being right about 74 victories in 2021, ALL our predictions were too high. Reason: Optimistic Royals fanboys.
That changed in 2024. Our guesses ranged from 69 to 78. The Royals won 86. We were never so glad to be so wrong.
Now, from our panel on the 2025 season: David Matson (80), Steve Roling (82), Jim Heeter (84), Bob White (86), Jeb Bayer (89) and Lonnie (90).
Jeb and I are admittedly out there, hoping all of these scenarios come true:
1. Outfield: M. J. Melendez will get comfortable with his new batting stance and blossom. Hunter Renfro will have an injury-free season and hit at his salary level. Centerfielder Kyle Isbel will win a Gold Glove.
2. Infield: The Royals will have a true leadoff hitter in Jonathon India, another MVP-worthy season from Bobby Witt Jr., an injury-free year from RBI machine Vinnie Pasquantino, and a solid season from base-stealing phenom Maikel Garcia. Strong defense would also be nice.
3. Utility: Michael Massey will be a super-sub in the infield and outfield. Darion Blanco will continue in the tradition of Jarrod Dyson (“That’s what speed do.”).
4. Catchers: The Venezuelan dynamic duo of Silver Slugger Salvy Perez and Gold Glove finalist Freddy Fermin will repeat good seasons. And they won’t be accidentally deported as gang members (have you seen Salvy’s tattoos?).
5. Starting Rotation: One of the best in MLB last year and mostly injury-free. Repeat.
6. Bullpen: Remember “HDH” (Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland), the trio of relievers who helped the Royals win pennants in 2014 and 2015? Let’s do it again. Maybe “HEE” – Hunter Harvey, Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg.
All of this is possible. Seriously. But running the table may not be that easy, at least according to…
Predictions by Some Actual Experts: Two of the most-quoted sources of MLB win/loss projections are FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA). Both predict 81 wins for the Royals in 2025.
In Las Vegas, BetMGM (first column below) has an over/under of 82.5. The last column in the chart shows sports prognosticator Clay Davenport at 75 Royals wins. I don’t like his number at all.
Moving outside the traditional sources for a moment, here is the prediction by GoatedPizzaLover69 on an MLB subreddit page. Winning 93 would certainly be fun.
USA Today for all teams…
How did these experts do last year when the Royals won 86? No better than the Nostradamus Panel.
2024: FanGraphs (76), PECOTA (70.5), Vegas (73.5) and USA Today (70).
Here’s hoping the Royals surprise again!
MLB Season Starts in Japan: The 2025 regular season started last week at the Tokyo Dome with two games between the Dodgers and Cubs. The Dodgers swept.
Japan has a long history of organized baseball, dating back to the 1870s. In the early 1900s, most Japanese players were amateur college players, and many U.S. colleges traveled to Japan to play in exhibitions. In 1927, pro players from the Philadelphia Royal Giants of the Negro Leagues made a goodwill baseball tour to Japan (photo below). The Royal Giants returned twice over the next few years and helped popularize the sport.
In 1934, as Japan and the United States drifted toward war, a team of American League All-Stars (Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, etc.) barnstormed Japan for 18 games. Below, Babe Ruth with Japanese bat boys.
The 1934 visit was welcomed by hundreds of thousands who delighted in shouting “Banzai, Banzai, Babe Ruth!” Alas, the shared love of baseball did not keep the two nations from going to war.
However, the tour had one positive result. It inspired the development of the first pro league in Japan, and the current version of that league, Nippon Professional Baseball, is the wealthiest sports league in Asia.
A good history of the 1934 tour is in the book Banzai Babe Ruth by Robert Fitts (2012). The book includes coverage of Moe Berg, a catcher on the AL all-stars, who later became celebrated as a multilingual secret agent during World War II.
Fast forward to 2025. There are 15 Japanese-born players in the majors and minors, and five played in last week’s Tokyo games. From left, Roki Sasaki, Shohei Ohtani, Shota Imanaga, Seiya Suzuki and Youshinobu Yamamoto.
The two Tokyo games were sellouts, and the TV viewership in Japan was 25 million for the first game and 23 million for the second. Last year, in the 2024 World Series between the big market Dodgers and Yankees, the U.S. TV viewership ranged from 13 million to 18 million. Japan loves baseball.
Home Run Derby: Last Thursday was draft day for the newly christened “Roberto Clemente Home Run Derby.” The competition has been going on for many years, but did not have a formal name until this year’s commissioner, Tim Sear, decreed it would be named after his baseball hero. Tim has an extensive Clemente memorabilia collection, and last year donated a baseball autographed by “The Great One” to the Clemente Museum in Pittsburgh (all as reported in Hot Stove #262). The ball is now on display at the museum.
The ten participants in our derby each draft eight players, and the first two picks were no-brainers – Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. By luck of the draw, Steve Roling had the first pick (Judge), and I had the second (Ohtani).
Commissioner Sear’s duties include reporting the standings each Monday, and this was his report for Week 1: Shalton – 1; Roling, Heeter, Matson, Grimaldi, Hoppe, Sear, Poole, White, Bayer – 0.
How did that happen? Among our 80 drafted players, only one got a homer in the Dodger/Cubs games in Japan. Shohei Ohtani. So, I’m #1 in the Roberto Clemente Home Run Derby. For a week.
Royals on TV: The Royals will have the same cable/satellite TV setup as last year, but with a change in gambling sponsor for the network (Bally out; FanDuel in). Streaming is available on FanDuel and Amazon Prime Video. An added feature this year will be 10 “free” games on local TV. Details on the Royals website here.
As for radio (Denny Matthews in his 57th year)…
The Oscars: The Oscars for the movies of 2024 were handed out earlier this month. I have often covered the Academy Awards in Hot Stove but will not this year. Two reasons: (i) For the first time since 2011, Rita and I did not attend the Telluride Film Festival where we saw early screenings of films with Oscar buzz, and (ii) We did not think there were many “A” movies in 2024. We saw most of the films that took the top Oscar awards but did not rank any of them higher than “B.” The movie we liked most (and gave an A) got eight nominations, but no Oscars – the Bob Dylan movie, A Complete Unknown, especially the performance by Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan (the movie begins streaming on Hulu tomorrow).
I have no idea what movies will be Oscar-worthy in 2025, but I know two I plan to see. Eephus, a baseball movie, is in theaters now and getting good reviews (trailer here). And I can’t wait to see the sequel to the mockumentary This is Spinal Tap, one of my favorite all-time films. The original was released in 1984, and Spinal Tap II – The End Continues will be in theaters in September. The teaser to the new film pays homage to the original by featuring the amplifiers that a guitar player can “turn up to 11.” The hilarious clip from the original film is here and the teaser for the new film is here. I’m already laughing in anticipation.
Lonnie’s Jukebox – R&B/Soul Memorial Edition: This edition of Lonnie’s Jukebox is dedicated to three R&B/Soul artists who we lost in February and March: Danny Cox (82), Jerry Butler (85) and Roberta Flack (88).
Danny Cox: In the late 1960s, Danny Cox was a popular headliner at Stan Plesser’s Vanguard at 43rd and Main (below, on a Danny Cox night at the Vanguard). He continued to perform for another 50+ years. KCUR obituary here.
“Summer of Love (Interview)” – Danny reminiscing about how he and Brewer and Shipley left California for Kansas City in 1967. His professional contact in KC was Stan Plesser who operated the Vanguard and the Cowtown Ballroom. Stan and Paul Peterson became Danny’s managers at Good Karma Productions. The rest of the story can be found in the Lonnie’s Jukebox section of Hot Stove #160.
On a personal level, I got to know Danny because I represented Good Karma in the 1970s. In 1981, I was part owner of the Harris House in Westport, and Stan Plesser worked with me to organize a “Vanguard Month” at the restaurant. Brewer & Shipley played two nights and Danny played three. We opened a deck above the restaurant, and Danny put together a house band that played the summer of 1981. He drew big crowds.
“Keep Your Hands Off It” (1968). From his debut album Sunny.
“The Ballad of Buck O’Neil” (Live, 2021). Rita and I last saw Danny perform in the Lyric Opera’s 2021 production of Baseball: A Musical Love Letter. At the end of the main show, Danny came on stage in his KC Monarchs uniform, and in his trademark booming voice, sang his composition “The Ballad of Buck O’Neil.” It brought down the house – an enthusiastic standing ovation.
Jerry Butler: Butler began his singing career in 1958 and enjoyed early success as a member to the Impressions. Below, Sam Gooden, Curtis Mayfield and Jerry Butler of the Impressions in 1960; on the right, Butler in 2003.
“For Your Precious Love” (with the Impressions, 1958). Butler, as the original lead singer of the Impressions, was inducted with the group into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1991.
“He Will Break Your Heart” (1960). Butler left the Impressions in 1960, and this was his first solo hit (peaking at #7).
“Only the Strong Survive” (1969). His biggest hit (peaked at #4).
Roberta Flack: She was one of the defining voices of the 1970s when she had three #1 hits. Here they are…
“The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” (1972).
“Killing Me Softly with His Song” (1973).
“Feel Like Makin’ Love” (1974).
Walk-Off Photo: A sure sign spring has arrived. Koi rising to the surface from the depths of the pond in Loose Park.
